Two real estate related articles that you should read

[Qacer]

First: Buy, Hold, or Sell:
http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/06/real_estate/home_prices.fortune/index.htm

"The ratio of housing price to rental price is compared and data suggests that in many areas the housing prices need to come down to double digits in order to be in line with the historical average. Tampa gets mentioned in the article a few times."

Second: 25 real estate markets poised to fall:
http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2007/fortune/0711/gallery.real_estate.fortune/

"For a 5 year home forecast for Tampa, the housing price needs to go down by 28% in order to be in line with the historical price/rent average."

Note that the forecast calculations are based on moderate economic growth. However, a recession or an economic boom will change the forecast. Recently, the Federal Reserve (Bernanke) announced that the US economy may be slowing down due to the credit crunch and rising oil prices. See article here: http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/08/news/economy/bernanke/index.htm?cnn=yes

A slowdown in the economy would translate to a higher percentage decrease needed to put the price/rent ratio in line with historical averages.

[MianoSM]

Good info I would agree with CNN, but I'm sure two more people will post how biased and slanted their numbers are.

[Qacer]

Yep, I'm sure a few will disagree. However, according to CNN's first article, they collaborated with a few other research firms like Moody's Economy.com to get the forecast numbers. I believe they are also getting their numbers from the National Association of Realtor's data, so if we assume that NAR's data is "padded" to look good, then the forecast still points to a declining real estate market prices in Tampa.

[fencerider2]

With the already 10% decline you add on the 28% and you have affordable housing once again. But I don't think it going to five years to get there.

[BisquitMan]

I just went under contract for a house. I got a good deal in my opinion. 4/2/2 (1750 sq ft) built in 03 for $157,000 (last owner paid $230,000 in 2005, so that is roughly a 32% drop). I would be paying the same or more in rent so it made sense to buy. So even though I feel the market is still in for hard times for another couple of years, I think I'll be ok.

[MianoSM]

I just went under contract for a house. I got a good deal in my opinion. 4/2/2 (1750 sq ft) built in 03 for $157,000 (last owner paid $230,000 in 2005, so that is roughly a 32% drop). I would be paying the same or more in rent so it made sense to buy. So even though I feel the market is still in for hard times for another couple of years, I think I'll be ok.

Really thats all that matters though. Something is only worth what people are willing to pay for it. $160k for a 4/2/2 sounds like a swingin deal to me! Gratz!