07-03-2009, 01:24 PM
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#4 (permalink) |
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Sodalime is good.
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All I see is that the Fed has WAY to much in mortgage backed securities...
$462,534,000,000.... They also are holding quite a bit of "Federal Agency Debt Securities" which they did not start "buying" until late 2008... $96,798,000,000... Both of which will require them to print more money as they loose value... It's all a cup and ball game... until someone figures out there are 3 balls.... |
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07-03-2009, 09:22 PM
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#5 (permalink) |
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Puppet Masturbater
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You guys screaming inflation just don't get, because you fail to understand one basic fact. It already happened, housing was inflated and now it has destroyed the credit markets. Without credit and the destruction of asset values you have no inflation.
Maybe someday you will understand and stop running with the dumb money crowd. |
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07-04-2009, 12:33 PM
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#6 (permalink) | |
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Sodalime is good.
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07-04-2009, 01:21 PM
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#7 (permalink) | |
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When I read your post
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the fed is printing this money to try and sustain real estate prices that are unsustainable because they think the money will replace what was lost - but that can't possibly happen - that was a bubble. once money starts to move out of an asset, it moves out - the speculators go away for good. it doesn't matter how much the fed cuts rates, it doesn't matter how much money they print, it will not flow back into real estate - just as cutting rates back after the dot-com bubble didn't cause dollars to flow back into the NASDAQ - printing and cutting rates doesn't stop it. all it does is create inflation, and as you admit inflation created the housing bubble - that inflation came from alan greenspan's printing press - the same place it's coming from now - so the new money that's created to try and replace the lost money in real estate will now bid up consumer goods, energy, and commodities. there's no way around it, the genie is out of the bottle. and as bernanke has assured us, interest rates likely aren't going up for quite some time. that will likely change though as the dollar breaks through 70, then 60, then 50, and so on, but if bernanke takes away the punch bowl and raises interest rates, not only will it make the economy absolutely implode due to expensive credit, but it will also impact the federal budget that has short term maturity. do you think bernanke will have the balls? absolutely not - so what will we try to do? we're going to print to pay back our debts and the dollar is going to fall through the floor. so look, it doesn't matter how much asset prices fall, because prices aren't inflation - the rate at which money is being created is inflation - not these phony numbers that don't even measure a fixed basket of goods - not to mention how reverse engineered they are. but even though asset prices are falling...why does the government need to save us from the scourge of being able to buy things for less money? this is the same strawman they raised in 2001-2002 - and look where we are. |
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07-04-2009, 06:25 PM
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#10 (permalink) | |
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Been there, done that...
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TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS in bubble "wealth" have disappeared...not transferred...just GONE. If anything, that's DEFLATIONARY, not inflationary. |
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07-04-2009, 07:37 PM
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#11 (permalink) | |
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When I read your post
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they aren't?  this doesn't even include furture bailouts that the government is likely to do...they've proven no matter the cost they will throw money at the us financials that or we're going to borrow it....and well....you know what that'll do.... |
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07-04-2009, 07:40 PM
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#12 (permalink) | |
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When I read your post
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at least we know the cost of living will never come down. isn't that nice of washington to do that for us? |
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07-04-2009, 07:49 PM
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#13 (permalink) | |
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When I read your post
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why has oil doubled off it's lows? why is silver over $13/oz why is the dollar index trading at ~80? none of these things happen in what you all are labeling a DEFLATIONARY environment. money would GAIN value. the fact that these numbers remained strong during the dollar's bear market rally in fall 08 should tell you how much inflationary pressures are already underlying the economy. just back in 07, DOW peaked at 14K and gold peaked at 1016...now the dow is barely above 8k....but gold is still above 900.00/oz. that is a good indication that we have some serious inflation already underlying the economy and once all this money starts coming out from the banks to be spent, it's over for the dollar. the strength in gold shows us this. Last edited by Josh : 07-04-2009 at 07:51 PM. |
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07-06-2009, 12:04 AM
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#14 (permalink) | |
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Been there, done that...
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07-06-2009, 12:31 AM
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#15 (permalink) | |
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Sodalime is good.
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Taxes? Healthcare? Electricity? Food? Water? The list of rising prices goes on and on... Jim, write me a list of your "daily life" bills that have been "deflating" since this disappearance of money.... I'll wait.... |
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07-06-2009, 09:34 AM
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#16 (permalink) | |
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Puppet Masturbater
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Joe I can't discuss this with you, becuase you just don't get it. Just keep screaming about inflation, thats fine with me. |
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07-06-2009, 11:14 AM
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#17 (permalink) | |
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Sodalime is good.
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When the cost of living goes up and salaries remain the same or go down, that is inflation. We are seeing the deflation of salaries and earnings (loss of jobs, salary reductions, furlough days) but we are still seeing prices of everyday living rise.... I don't get it because you haven't explained anything other then simply saying "money went poof". I agree, some money did go "poof" but on the backend money is being created to offset the "poof", otherwise we would see the prices for everyday living trailing the loss of incomes... and we are not seeing it. Ben and Tim BOTH have said for YEARS that they would rather have inflation over deflation. They think inflation is something they can control more. They will both do whatever it takes to keep inflation alive and well but I think it will get out of hand as they have to keep increasing the pumps.... |
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07-06-2009, 07:52 PM
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#18 (permalink) | |
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When I read your post
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you're saying there's a commodity bubble or speculative frenzy? i don't think so....but just for kicks....let's have a look hmm? stand in a public place and ask random people some questions. "excuse me sir, i was looking to buy some gold and silver, do you mind telling me where you get yours?" or "who's your gold/silver broker?" i would imagine they'd look at you like you're from mars, tell you they don't buy gold, ask you why you want gold or why they should want gold. now if you posed some slightly different questions regarding real estate a couple of years ago....you would've gotten some serious answers and maybe even a few business cards! it's not foolproof, but in order for there to be a real speculative frenzy, everyone's doing it, you'll hear about it all the time, you'll hear conversations about it all the time in public places. if we did have a commodity bubble right now, gold stores would be popping up all over the place, and there would be an attitude that "yeah, you can't lose buying gold - it always goes up". that's not the attitude you hear out there today. now is there the chance for it? absolutely - in fact, most bull markets end in some type of blow-off phase, but we're no where near that in commodities. these prices are rising because the dollar is being debased. 10 years ago, gold was under 300/oz. it's tripled and slightly more. that's nothing compared to how it acted in the 70's where it went up 24 times. in a bubble, prices become completely disconnected with the fundamental value of the asset usually caused by latecomers to the frenzy and they drive up the price. much like the NASDAQ bubble where we went from 3000 to 5000 in less than a year - where dot-com stocks were trading at 60 times earnings. just pure insanity. we don't see that yet in gold...not on a triple - that's still cheap! gold bottomed at ~250/oz in it's last bear market, so if gold went up 24 times again that puts it at 6000/oz. and it can go that high, the dollar has already lost 1/3rd of it's value over the last 10 years. that means gold should've tripled and look it has. none of what is in front of us is good for the dollar, but we will now have our problems compounded by very high inflation as we try to rebuild...and it's going to be a very rough ride. so the fact that gold has tripled has nothing whatsoever to do with speculators - nothing at all - same for oil, silver, platinum, soybeans(extremely inflation sensitive), etc. speculators don't drive the market, they come along for the ride. it's not really gold going anywhere, it's the dollar that's being debased. |
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07-06-2009, 08:00 PM
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#19 (permalink) | |
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Been there, done that...
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Say...shouldn't you be off figuring out ways to cheat on your taxes??? 
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07-06-2009, 08:06 PM
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#20 (permalink) | |
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When I read your post
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sure, there's some speculators there, but they mostly get flushed out with every correction...the corrections cause fear....but i haven't run into anyone who buys like i do....the minute i do, i will get suspicious, but until then (and you're proving this) i'll buy with both hands. not one of my gold stocks have split....if there were speculators driving these price, they'd be splitting all the time. they also wouldn't be at 7-9 times earnings....that's still relatively cheap. there are no speculators in this market to the degree that it would control the price or cause me to think there's a bubble...speculators come along for the ride - they don't drive the market. to your tax cheat comment - it's unbelievable that i refuse to believe there's a law, but this automatically means i'm a tax cheat. if you're deducing is anything like your ability to walk and chew gum, you're in trouble. |
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